Jim Smith, professor emeritus of civil and environmental engineering, Princeton University
Are there bounds on rainfall? Can physical arguments or statistical evidence be produced to support claims that there is a natural limitation to rainfall? How does the most extreme rainfall change in a warming climate? These are questions that have special societal relevance through Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP), the design and safety standard for high-hazard dams in the US and many countries around the world. In this talk, Smith will examine the scientific understanding of rainfall extremes and the foundations of PMP, drawing on assessments, conclusions and recommendations presented in a recent National Academies study, “Modernizing Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation”.